economy

FT Poll Puts Trump's Economy Approval at a Record Low of About 25% Three Weeks Before the Midterms

About a quarter of US registered voters approve of President Trump’s handling of jobs and the economy, the lowest share since the Financial Times began its monthly poll with Focaldata in May. Only about a fifth approve of how he’s handling inflation. The survey was taken online from 2 to 4 October among 2,275 registered voters, with a margin of error of 2.5 points.

His overall approval stands at 34%. September’s reading of 33% was the low point of the series, so the topline has stopped falling. The economic numbers haven’t.

Five months of decline

The slide was already clear a month ago. In September, 26% approved of his economic handling and 58% disapproved. Two-thirds said the economy was on the wrong track, up from 61% in May. And 57% said they were worse off than when he took office, against 36% in May.

The October poll moves the same way. More than two-thirds now say the economy is heading in the wrong direction. Approval of his handling of the Iran war is below a quarter, down more than seven points since May, and almost two-thirds want a deal as soon as possible.

Tariffs show up too. In September, 56% of registered voters disapproved of the 50% tariff on Canadian goods, including over 60% of independents and about a third of Republicans.

What voters are reacting to

The poll tracks the official data closely. Consumer prices rose 3.4% in the year to August, with energy up 16.3% as the Iran war kept oil above $100 a barrel in early September. Diesel hit a record $5.85 a gallon in early September. The Federal Reserve raised rates on 16 September for the first time since 2023, and the September jobs report showed just 29,000 jobs added. The full picture is in our economy post.

The war is a direct line from Washington’s decisions to the pump. The Pentagon puts its cost at $43.6 billion, most of it unfunded, as covered in our Iran war costs post.

The midterm arithmetic

The FT found 45% of voters say the President makes it harder for Republican candidates to win in November. His base hasn’t left the party, though. Fewer than 70% of his 2024 voters approve of his performance, yet 80% still plan to vote for the Republican in their House district.

That gap matters for the 3 November vote. Republicans hold the House 218 to 214 and the Senate 53 to 47. Democrats lead the generic ballot by about 8 points in the polling averages, but redistricting has netted Republicans about ten seats, which is why forecasters project Democratic House gains in the teens. If those voters turn out for Republican candidates while disapproving of the President, the economy may cost the party less than the approval numbers suggest.

What it means in Washington

A Democratic House would change the budget calendar more than economic policy itself. The government is funded only to 11 December, reconciliation needs unified control, and the debt limit binds in 2027. Our midterms post sets out what each outcome means for appropriations, the debt limit and oversight.

The White House has argued that prices will ease once the disruption from Iran ends. That’s a bet on the Strait of Hormuz, and voters will have marked their ballots before it pays off.