GAO

GAO Report on Geostationary Weather Satellites, Next Generation Program Challenges Put Vital Observations at Risk

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) reviewed the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) next generation Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) program, which was restructured in 2025 to reduce lifecycle costs from $19.6 billion to $13 billion. Despite this reduction, GAO found that NOAA needs to document its new cost estimates and fully incorporate lessons learned from prior programs, including contingency planning to address potential gaps in satellite weather data.

GeoXO Program Restructuring

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) originally planned to launch six satellites for the Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) program, expecting a lifecycle cost of $19.6 billion. In August 2025, Commerce directed NOAA to restructure the program to reduce costs. By April 2026, the new plan reduced the number of satellites from six to four and decreased the number of instruments from five to two. This change is expected to lower the total cost to $13 billion. However, if a GeoXO satellite launches in 2032 as planned, there could be a gap in weather data continuity since NOAA only has one operational spare satellite by then, which will end its life in October 2032. This situation raises concerns about the reliability of satellite data.

GeoXO’s Cost Estimate Gaps

The cost estimate for GeoXO from 2022 was $19.6 billion, meeting three and partially meeting one of the best practices in documenting estimates. However, it lacked a separate narrative document summarizing the methodology used, making it hard to replicate calculations or detect errors. This could undermine future cost estimates and improve planning. The program did incorporate leading practices for requirements management but not for contingency planning or technology readiness, leaving gaps that might affect satellite availability and data tracking.

Why GAO Looked Into It

GAO was asked to review the GeoXO program by NOAA, a component of the Department of Commerce. The request came after concerns about the cost and implementation of the new geostationary weather satellites, called GeoXO, which were intended to replace existing operational satellites. GAO examined agency documents including program office plans, management reports, cost estimate documentation, contingency plans, requirements policies and procedures, and technical readiness assessments. By comparing these documents against leading practices and interviewing officials, GAO aimed to assess the extent of implementation of best practices in establishing cost estimates and incorporation of lessons learned from previous satellite programs into GeoXO’s development.

What GAO Recommends

GAO made 3 recommendations to Department of Commerce:

  • The Secretary of Commerce should ensure the Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere (the NOAA Administrator) develops documentation for the updated cost estimate for the GeoXO program that incorporates the best practices for the well-documented characteristic.
  • The Secretary of Commerce should ensure the Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere (the NOAA Administrator) updates contingency plans to identify procedures to deploy call-up spares and address weather data gaps, including impacts of failure scenarios and alternative solutions to address the failure scenarios.
  • The Secretary of Commerce should ensure the Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere (the NOAA Administrator) documents a comprehensive TRA report for each instrument.

The full report, Geostationary Weather Satellites: Next Generation Program Challenges Put Vital Observations at Risk, is on GAO’s site, publicly released Oct 16, 2026.