Graham Act Tariff Deadline Is Days Away With No Country List, Rates or Waiver Published

The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, signed on 18 September, says the President “shall” raise duties on “all goods” from covered countries “to a rate of up to 100 percent ad valorem” within 30 days of enactment. That deadline falls around 18 to 19 October. As of 12 October, the White House, USTR and Treasury had published no list of countries, no rates and no waiver.

The law also requires a written justification to six congressional committees at least ten days before any duty takes effect, which pointed to about 8 October. Whether one was sent privately hasn’t been disclosed.

Who would be covered

The tariffs apply to the five largest buyers of Russian crude oil or gas over the prior twelve months that knowingly keep buying, and to the five biggest facilitators of sanctions evasion. USTR must redo the list every 180 days. The provision counts crude and gas only, not refined products like diesel.

China takes about half of Russia’s crude exports. A 100% tariff would apply to roughly $300 billion of its annual exports to the US. India drew a record 50.8% of its crude imports from Russia in July. Senate aides have floated an indicative list of China, India, Slovakia, Hungary and Azerbaijan, according to Modern Diplomacy.

The waiver

Section 115 lets the President waive any measure on national interest grounds, but only after a written certification to Congress. The administration’s other moves point that way. On 9 October Treasury licensed Russian diesel imports, and the President announced deliveries of more than 300,000 tons. The US-China trade truce, which suspends many tariffs, runs to 10 January 2027. A 100% tariff on China would end it.

The bill passed the Senate 86 to 11 and the House 262 to 159, so a waiver would override large majorities in both parties. We covered the law’s provisions in an earlier post.

Why it matters

This is the first time Congress has written secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers into law with a deadline. The President has three choices: impose them and break the China truce, waive them and confirm that Congress’s sanctions bill is optional in practice, or let the deadline pass without either, which would invite a legal fight over whether “shall” means must.

What to watch

A Federal Register notice from USTR, or a waiver certification to the committees, in the coming days. Congress is out until after the election, so any response from lawmakers will come in November.