critical minerals

Project Vault Signs Glencore and Mercuria as the FORGE Critical Minerals Price Floor Agreement Stays Unsigned

On 23 September Glencore and Mercuria became the first commodity traders to join Project Vault, the US critical minerals stockpile, committing $1 billion between them. Project Vault is backed by a $10 billion loan from the Export-Import Bank, the bank’s largest ever, plus about $2 billion of private money. It’s run by a private company, VaultCo, with EXIM as a non-voting board observer, and can buy any of the 60 minerals the US Geological Survey lists as critical. No purchases have been disclosed.

Eight months after Washington launched a multinational forum to set floor prices for critical minerals, no agreement has been signed. US policy is running through deals and balance sheets.

FORGE

The Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement, FORGE, was launched at a ministerial meeting in Washington on 4 February, replacing the Minerals Security Partnership. About 54 countries take part. The US signed 11 bilateral minerals frameworks that day, on top of ten since October 2025.

The idea is to set reference prices at each stage of production, mining, processing and magnet making, and enforce them with adjustable tariffs on cheaper imports, mostly from China. The EU, Japan, Mexico and the UK announced action plans on border-adjusted price floors. USTR asked for comments on a plurilateral Agreement on Trade in Critical Minerals in February. As of late August, the comments were still under review. FORGE set up two working groups in July.

The House passed the DOMINANCE Act in June to write FORGE into law. The Senate hasn’t acted.

Section 232

In January the President found that imports of processed critical minerals threaten national security, under Section 232, but imposed no tariffs. He ordered negotiations, with price floors to be considered, and a progress report within 180 days. No follow-up proclamation has been published.

The deals

The money has gone out faster than the rules. The Pentagon took a $400 million stake in MP Materials in 2025 with a ten-year floor price of $110 a kilogram for neodymium-praseodymium, a key magnet material. Japan copied that floor in a deal with Lynas in March.

Since August:

  • USA Rare Earth completed its purchase of Serra Verde, a Brazilian rare earth mine, in early September, backed by a government offtake vehicle of $1.55 billion that includes $750 million from the Pentagon, according to press reports.
  • The US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund made its first minerals investment on 2 October, about $30 million into a platform covering rare earths, uranium and other metals.

Why it matters

China dominates processing of most critical minerals and has used export controls on rare earths as leverage, including against Japan, as described in our post on the US-Japan pact. Price floors are meant to make non-Chinese supply viable when China cuts prices. Without a multinational agreement, each floor is a single deal paid for by one government. That works for a few companies. A market-wide floor needs the agreement FORGE hasn’t produced yet, and Congress hasn’t funded it beyond the EXIM loan.