Trump Says a Decision on Iran Is Coming 'Very Soon' as Axios Reports Strike Talks With Netanyahu and the White House Denies Pre-Election Plans

“We’ll make a decision on Iran very soon,” the President told reporters at the White House on 13 October before leaving for Alaska. He called Iran a “failed state,” said the war would end “very soon” and oil prices would fall after, and said the November midterms have “no impact” on his approach. At a rally in Ohio he said: “Wait until you see what we do to Iran. We’re going to do a number.”

The same day Axios reported, citing unnamed officials, that the President and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had spent about two weeks discussing a joint US-Israeli strike on Iranian military and nuclear targets. Netanyahu cited Israeli intelligence that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear programme, with particular concern about the underground site known as Pickaxe Mountain. Senior US officials met at Camp David on 2 October to discuss options, including resuming strikes.

The White House called the report “false.” “The President has said that we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections,” it said, repeating his 8 October pledge.

Who wants what

According to Axios, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Central Command’s leadership are the strongest advocates of renewed strikes. Most of the President’s other advisers prefer sanctions and pressure. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described the policy as moving from “maximum pressure” to “absolute isolation.”

Israel’s army chief, Eyal Zamir, reportedly told General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, that full-scale fighting could resume within three weeks, and warned that might force Israel to postpone its 27 October election. Israel’s Channel 12 reported the President told Netanyahu to “go ahead and prepare” without committing. Netanyahu’s office denied seeking a war before the elections.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran has built earthen barriers around Pickaxe Mountain and Natanz, based on satellite imagery analysed by the Institute for Science and International Security, and that Iranian officials privately warned they could sink US warships and hit Saudi oil sites.

Diplomacy

Qatari mediators are waiting for Iran’s reply to the latest US counterproposal, which includes nuclear demands. Iran had called the earlier US answer to its seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz “inadequate.” A US official told Axios the talks are “not really dead, but they’re not really alive.”

Why it matters

The next three weeks hold two elections, Israel’s on 27 October and the US midterms on 3 November, and a public pledge that pulls against reported planning. Congress, in recess, can’t vote on war powers before November. The cost of renewed strikes would fall on interceptor stocks that CBO says will take five years to rebuild, as covered in our post on war costs. The reporting rests on anonymous officials and is denied by both governments, which is itself a reason to watch what Washington does, not what it says.